Sunday, January 4, 2009

Planning a home buy? Do it in first 3 months of 2009

If you had been flip-flopping over buying a home in 2008, then your best chance to get one at an attractive price is in the first three months of 2009. Here’s why:

1) Deflation = from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market.... (?):

Firstly, experts feel that residential prices are likely to stabilise from April onwards with fears of deflation looming large over the Indian economy.

Moreover, the persistent decrease in the general price level of goods and services is likely to bring down interest rates to affordable levels, which will mean that the pendulum will shift from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market, from April.

2) Price cut:

With real estate developers expected to further cut prices over the next three months, experts feel that this is the best time to let their indecisiveness work to your advantage.

Price Correction: 15-20% (2008) + 10% (2009)!

"2009 will open up opportunities for investment in real estate as property prices have corrected by around 15-20% in 2008. I expect a further correction of 10% over the next three months. Price stability should arrive by March 2009 and will not climb quickly. The first three months of the new year is going to witness a surge in residential sales." says Anuj Puri, chairman and country head of Jones Lang Lasalle Meghraj.

A buyer’s market!

"As a buyer if you have good negotiation skills and can avoid brokers, you might even avail an extra discount," says Arvind Mahajan, executive director of KPMG India.
"Owing to cash crunch, developers are under immense pressure and are looking for ways of funding their future projects. Prices have already dipped 15-20% and interest rates are also coming down. The amount of real estate inventory that we have now makes it undoubtedly a buyer’s market," he says
To read more, please, visit - Raja Awasthi & Aman Dhall-The Economic Times

Related Stories:

1) Urban development ministry calls for additional government measures, including cuts in home loan rates, to revive crumbling real estate sector

2) RBI cuts key rates to stimulate economy

3) Economists see robust growth in FY09

4) Return of animal spirits

5) Overseas funding to boost real estate

6) Indian Real Estate Developers to meet the RBI Governor to demand more sops for the struggling real estate sector

7) Credit flow to developers - RBI's interest rate cuts and the fiscal stimulus package do little to address the realty sector’s main source of trouble

8) Real estate developers expect more people to buy homes now to reduce cost of funds for developers and ease the liquidity pressure!

9) Would prices start rallying again?

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  1. Completely agree. I'm buyer. Just experienced the great deal! (don't know yet, but as of now looks good)... 2008 was quite uncertain and thankfully most of us didn't buy. Start of 2009, goes to buyers. I know most of us have studied some of their dream projects, and have certain pricing done for that. Go for it, you will definitly get good deal..
    Also, don't try to find bottom now.. you'll never know when did it passed away.. All The Best!!!!

  2. Completely disagree, I am a buyer as well. I am surveying prices in Pune in the last 2 months and realised that there is no real price drop or a correction in the pune real estate as of now, 2008 is already over.
    Builders are just fooling investors by spreading a word that 15-20% correction is already done, buy now.... this is a TRAP.
    We have elections due in March-April 09. Post elections, there is a great crash expected in public and private/corporate sector in terms of job layoffs, as this slowdown will not be over by that time and more and more pepole will loost jobs in June-July 09.
    Your buyer is bankcorrupt in next year, Who is going to buy then???

  3. I'm buyer as well and very closely monitoring the media over RE for one year and no ONLY HAPPENS IN TOI and related press ET, PT etc

    Anyways, thanks Ravi for posting and making us aware of yet another trap by sellers who are repeating their Divali projections and will end up with same reality...

    - Anil

  4. Completely agree.this is a TRAP.

  5. I am looking to buy a 2 bed in pune soon. Can someone help me to locate the right project. Thanks

  6. Yes, I too disagree.

    Pune real estate is one of the most hyped one and lots of waves of false informations are triggered like rates have bottomed out already, builders will raise prices etc.

    The thing to note that the boom in 2007-8 was supported mostly due to investors who thought buyers will follow any price.

    In any market, end price is decided by end user, no matter how much middlemen, cartelers try to speculate.

    I see a correction of at least 50% is needed in Pune. The only buyer will come in. Till then, either he will just keep surveying or get completely disconnected from market.

    So its not a matter of hope for buyers but a matter of time before prices arrive in realistic, reasonable and affordable limits.

  7. the first guy "why_should_builders_win_always" is a builder himself and always speculate things in pune real estate, he is a good hypster.
    I live in the UK, house prices here are very affordable these days because of the economic mess and secondly because sellers/builders are honest and admit the reality.
    in mumbai, pune or in general in India, real estate sector is dominated by political lobby.
    In the past 5-6 years, rates of properties were particularly dectated by the big politicians who had a great stake with many big builders in mumbai, pune.
    all the money they invested was peoples money that they had corrupted out of their powers, so not in a hurry to get that money back as it's not their hard earned money. Hence the prices are not going down.
    Personally, I am out of this whole game and prefer to live here peacefully. Things will be like this in India, it is the common people who only suffer and forced to pay for nasty prices.

  8. there are 3 types of projects:
    1. Alomost Complete:
    Almost 80%-90% are already sold, as these projects were launched when market was booming. Builders have already invested huge money in buying land and big construction cost. These builders are not ready to reduce prices by much. Don't expect more than 10% correction here.

    2. The project started in Last year, and those will complete in year or two (God knows..) (20% complete):
    These project were launched, when marketr was booming, but within few months reverse trend started. Only 10%-20% flats are sold. These projects does not come in affordable housing catagory, as they were launched 1 year back (market was not that bad). You can expect 15%-25% correction in those.

    3. New Projects:
    Mostly they are of 'affordable housing' catageroy (less quality???). They are launched with reduced prices by 15%-25%.

    Now, what is the benchmark to say the priced are somewhat reduced. So, we need to see the average prices at same location when market was at peak.